Statistics involve data collection and making an analysis of it. While one can complain about an incomplete or misleading analysis, accurate numbers cannot be ignored. Trump and his enablers have focused on invalidating all votes in Wayne County, Michigan, the state’s most populous county. So far, they have failed in this vicious action. The vote in Wayne County and the three other most populous counties shows common patterns and proof of the reliability of all the votes. It makes one wonder why Republicans decided to attack only the Wayne County vote. The voting patterns in all these counties for three elections (2012, 2016, and 2020) establish that Trump’s screaming about fraudulent mail-in votes is without any basis in fact. The people who voted in Wayne County were real voters, just as real as the voters in these other three counties—Macomb, Kent, and Oakland.
What is different about Wayne County? It has a much higher Black population than the other three, most of it in the City of Detroit. Unsurprisingly, it had the largest pro-Democratic vote in 2020. That was also true in 2012 and 2016. In 2012, Obama’s margin of victory over Romney was 382,000. In 2016, Clinton won Wayne County by only 289,000. Part of the decrease in the margin was due Trump getting 16,000 more votes than Romney had in 2012, but the main reason was due to people not voting for either of the major candidates. Overall, the number of votes for both major party candidates was 61,000 less in 2016. In 2020, Biden received 2,000 more votes than Obama received in 2012 Although 53,000 more votes were cast in 2020 over 2012 for the two main candidates, the vast majority of additional votes went to Trump (51,000), leaving Biden’s margin at 333,000, or 49,000 fewer than Obama’s in 2012. So, how could mail-in ballots be some proof of fraud?
Oakland County, primarily a prosperous suburb (with the highest median household income of the four counties in question) of Detroit and a large percentage white population, voted for Obama by a 52,000 vote margin in 2012. In 2016, Clinton won with a slight increase in margin to 54,000. Yet, there were 14,000 fewer voters for both candidates. One can surmise that the increase for Clinton was the result of a movement of moderate, well-off Republicans moving away from Trump. In 2020, Biden won by 108,000 votes, with 114,000 more people voting than had voted in 2012. Was this change fraud or a tidal wave of moderate Republicans and Independents voting against Trump? Why did Republicans not attack this vote as well?
Macomb County is sometimes called the home base of the “Reagan Democrat”, with a substantial population of working class whites. It also has the highest percentage white population of these four counties. It voted twice for Obama, with a 16,000 vote margin in 2012. In 2016, it switched substantially to a 48,000 vote margin for Trump. The total number of votes for the two presidential candidates remained the same as in 2012. In 2020, Trump once again won it, but the margin was 8,000 fewer than in 2016, even with an increase of 88,000 voters in total numbers for the two candidates. Where is the outcry of fraud?
Kent County is the home of the “moderate” Republican. President Gerald Ford was from here and represented this area in the House of Representatives. His presidential library is here. The white population is 75% of its total. In 2012, Romney won it by 23,000, but in 2016, Trump’s margin was only 10,000. In addition in 2016, 7,000 fewer voters voted than in 2012 voted for the two main parties’ candidates.. In 2020, Biden won Kent county by 22,000 votes, a turnaround of 45,000 votes from 2012. The number of people voting for both of the presidential candidates went up substantially (61,000) from 2012 to 2020. Why has the Republican Party and Trump not claimed fraud here?
Common patterns in all four counties support the validity of the votes in all Three counties had decreased turnout for the main candidates in 2016 versus 2012, with Oakland remaining the same. Where one is likely to find moderate Republicans and Independents (Kent and Oakland Counties), Trump did less well than Romney. Wayne County remains solidly Democratic in all three elections, but 2016 was much worse than 2012. Despite the substantial increase in 2020, Wayne County’s margin for Biden is less favorable to Trump than was Obama’s to Romney’s. How can anyone claim that all of these votes were fraudulent or at least so much so that it requires removing all of Wayne County’s votes from the total for Michigan? It is an illusion, all based on racism. If one looked at the votes in Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Atlanta, it likely will reveal a similar picture. As Trump has done throughout his four years, he has fomented chaos and distrust during this period after the election. It is hoped that most people who voted for Trump will stop siding with this lie and accept the fact that the vote in 2020 was accurate, just as Hillary Clinton accepted the outcome in 2016 and made no claim of voter fraud. (Do not mix up Russian interference with a claim of voter fraud. Very few people claimed the Russians actually manipulated the votes. The claim has always been Russian attempts to influence the election with disinformation.)
REGISTERED VOTERS STATEWIDE
ETHNIC MAKEUP: 76% White 14% Black
FOUR MOST POPULOUS COUNTIES
Ethnic makeup (2010 Census)
Wayne 49% White 38% Black Oakland: 71% White 14% Black Macomb: 85% White 9% Black Kent: 76% White 10% Black
(The vast majority of the Wayne County Black Population is in the City of Detroit, which is 79% Black and 15% White. The Black population of Wayne County makes up about 75% of the Black population in all of Michigan.)
Sources: Politico on-line news magazine archives; Wikipedia; Census Bureau (from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis)
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