Work in progress on the petites pensées
Author: Bertrand Piboin
WAYNE COUNTY MICHIGAN: IT’S ALL ABOUT RACISM
Statistics involve data collection and making an analysis of it. While one can complain about an incomplete or misleading analysis, accurate numbers cannot be ignored. Trump and his enablers have focused on invalidating all votes in Wayne County, Michigan, the state’s most populous county. So far, they have failed in this vicious action. The vote in Wayne County and the three other most populous counties shows common patterns and proof of the reliability of all the votes. It makes one wonder why Republicans decided to attack only the Wayne County vote. The voting patterns in all these counties for three elections (2012, 2016, and 2020) establish that Trump’s screaming about fraudulent mail-in votes is without any basis in fact. The people who voted in Wayne County were real voters, just as real as the voters in these other three counties—Macomb, Kent, and Oakland.
What is different about Wayne County? It has a much higher Black population than the other three, most of it in the City of Detroit. Unsurprisingly, it had the largest pro-Democratic vote in 2020. That was also true in 2012 and 2016. In 2012, Obama’s margin of victory over Romney was 382,000. In 2016, Clinton won Wayne County by only 289,000. Part of the decrease in the margin was due Trump getting 16,000 more votes than Romney had in 2012, but the main reason was due to people not voting for either of the major candidates. Overall, the number of votes for both major party candidates was 61,000 less in 2016. In 2020, Biden received 2,000 more votes than Obama received in 2012 Although 53,000 more votes were cast in 2020 over 2012 for the two main candidates, the vast majority of additional votes went to Trump (51,000), leaving Biden’s margin at 333,000, or 49,000 fewer than Obama’s in 2012. So, how could mail-in ballots be some proof of fraud?
Oakland County, primarily a prosperous suburb (with the highest median household income of the four counties in question) of Detroit and a large percentage white population, voted for Obama by a 52,000 vote margin in 2012. In 2016, Clinton won with a slight increase in margin to 54,000. Yet, there were 14,000 fewer voters for both candidates. One can surmise that the increase for Clinton was the result of a movement of moderate, well-off Republicans moving away from Trump. In 2020, Biden won by 108,000 votes, with 114,000 more people voting than had voted in 2012. Was this change fraud or a tidal wave of moderate Republicans and Independents voting against Trump? Why did Republicans not attack this vote as well?
Macomb County is sometimes called the home base of the “Reagan Democrat”, with a substantial population of working class whites. It also has the highest percentage white population of these four counties. It voted twice for Obama, with a 16,000 vote margin in 2012. In 2016, it switched substantially to a 48,000 vote margin for Trump. The total number of votes for the two presidential candidates remained the same as in 2012. In 2020, Trump once again won it, but the margin was 8,000 fewer than in 2016, even with an increase of 88,000 voters in total numbers for the two candidates. Where is the outcry of fraud?
Kent County is the home of the “moderate” Republican. President Gerald Ford was from here and represented this area in the House of Representatives. His presidential library is here. The white population is 75% of its total. In 2012, Romney won it by 23,000, but in 2016, Trump’s margin was only 10,000. In addition in 2016, 7,000 fewer voters voted than in 2012 voted for the two main parties’ candidates.. In 2020, Biden won Kent county by 22,000 votes, a turnaround of 45,000 votes from 2012. The number of people voting for both of the presidential candidates went up substantially (61,000) from 2012 to 2020. Why has the Republican Party and Trump not claimed fraud here?
Common patterns in all four counties support the validity of the votes in all Three counties had decreased turnout for the main candidates in 2016 versus 2012, with Oakland remaining the same. Where one is likely to find moderate Republicans and Independents (Kent and Oakland Counties), Trump did less well than Romney. Wayne County remains solidly Democratic in all three elections, but 2016 was much worse than 2012. Despite the substantial increase in 2020, Wayne County’s margin for Biden is less favorable to Trump than was Obama’s to Romney’s. How can anyone claim that all of these votes were fraudulent or at least so much so that it requires removing all of Wayne County’s votes from the total for Michigan? It is an illusion, all based on racism. If one looked at the votes in Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Atlanta, it likely will reveal a similar picture. As Trump has done throughout his four years, he has fomented chaos and distrust during this period after the election. It is hoped that most people who voted for Trump will stop siding with this lie and accept the fact that the vote in 2020 was accurate, just as Hillary Clinton accepted the outcome in 2016 and made no claim of voter fraud. (Do not mix up Russian interference with a claim of voter fraud. Very few people claimed the Russians actually manipulated the votes. The claim has always been Russian attempts to influence the election with disinformation.)
TABLES
MICHIGAN STATEWIDE
POPULATION 9,987,000
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Party/Year | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
Dem | 2562000 | 2268000 | 2804000 |
Rep | 2113000 | 2228000 | 2650000 |
REGISTERED VOTERS STATEWIDE
2012 | 7400000 |
2016 | 7500000 |
2020 | 8000000 |
ETHNIC MAKEUP: 76% White 14% Black
FOUR MOST POPULOUS COUNTIES
POPULATION
COUNTY | POPULATION |
Wayne | 1750000 |
Oakland | 1257000 |
Macomb | 874000 |
Kent | 657000 |
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
WAYNE COUNTY
Year | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
Dem | 595000 | 518000 | 597000 |
Rep | 213000 | 229000 | 264000 |
OAKLAND COUNTY
Year | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
Dem | 349000 | 343000 | 434000 |
Rep | 297000 | 289000 | 325000 |
MACOMB COUNTY
Year | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
Dem | 208000 | 176000 | 224000 |
Rep | 192000 | 2224000 | 264000 |
KENT COUNTY
Year | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
Dem | 135000 | 138000 | 188000 |
Rep | 158000 | 148000 | 166000 |
MEDIAN INCOME
Wayne | $45,000 |
Oakland | $80,000 |
Macomb | $62,000 |
Kent | $60,000 |
Ethnic makeup (2010 Census)
Wayne 49% White
38% Black
Oakland: 71% White
14% Black
Macomb: 85% White
9% Black
Kent: 76% White
10% Black
(The vast majority of the Wayne County Black Population is in the City of Detroit, which is 79% Black and 15% White. The Black population of Wayne County makes up about 75% of the Black population in all of Michigan.)
Sources: Politico on-line news magazine archives; Wikipedia; Census Bureau (from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis)
Copyright © 2020 All rights reserved.
SUSPENSION OF DISBELIEF (THE PARTY OF TRUMP AND THE END OF REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY)
A statement about Trump, his lies, lack of humor, and how his party, the Party of Trump, is a cult of personality, leading to the end of representative democracy.
To see the full essay: https://bertrandspensees.com/?s=suspension+of+disbelief
JOHN PRINE, A TRUE SPIRITUAL BEING
Synopsis–A statement on how John Prine’s songs have a spiritual realm and their effect on my own walk through this life.
For complete essay: https://bertrandspensees.com/john-prine-a-true-spiritual-being/
ETYENTOMOLOGY–INTRODUCTION
ETYENTOMOLOGY—This series of Posts, which I will call, for lack of another description, Etyentomology, combines, somewhat, the fields of Etymology (word origins) and Entomology (the study of insects). This idea is partly generated by my friend Clay Price who frequently posts On Facebook wonderful information about the meanings and origins of words. You could just call this “words and phrases that ‘bug’ me”. Mainly, it is just a way to talk about one aspect of language that I love, words and their meanings and origins.
Kneeling and the National Anthem
Having read many posts and statements in the media about the NFL players kneeling during the national anthem, I decided, after seeing this article below in a post by a Facebook friend, to add some thoughts. It saddens me that many people think of kneeling at this point as some sort of serious crime and an attack on the national anthem. The Politifact article about the history of the national anthem at sporting events provides some very important insight into this whole issue. It also points out that Kaepernick actually changed his protest from sitting to kneeling on the advice of a fellow NFL player and former green beret as a way to respect the military with his protest.
I think of kneeling as showing a sign of respect and humility. So, I find it incredible that people are getting so angry about the matter. The report below on Shepard Smith’s statements, from Fox News of all places, should make for some serious reflection and, I hope, a reevaluation of one’s emotions.
The Snopes web site provides more detailed information on the contact between Kaepernick and Nate Boyer, who led Kaepernick to kneel as part of his protest. One other web site on this part of the story included a picture of a soldier kneeling on one knee with a folded flag in his arms and about to give it to the grieving family of a deceased soldier at the soldier’s funeral. This is standard military practice at such funerals.
http://splinternews.com/fox-news-host-shep-smith-uh-actually-described-nfl-1818767388
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2017/sep/25/short-history-national-anthem-and-sports/
http://www.snopes.com/veteran-kaepernick-take-a-knee-anthem/
IT WAS FIFTY YEARS AGO TODAY…..(SGT PEPPER’S AND ME)
My thoughts on the album that changed rock/pop music forever (at least to now)
See essay: https://bertrandspensees.com/it-was-fifty-years-ago-today-sgt-peppers-and-me/
DONALD TRUMP: LYING, CHEATING, UNFIT, AND UNREDEEMING
This essay constitutes my “rant” about Donald Trump. It does not contain sources for all of the factual assertions about him. Although I intend in other writings to have sources presented for all assertions, it is not necessary here. Every assertion can be located on the Internet by doing a “Google” search. The title of the essay references his behavior throughout his life. Lying and cheating are how he has conducted his entire business career. Unfit refers to his disdain for democracy and his mental instability. Unredeeming simply means that he is devoid of any eternal, spiritual values.
See essay: https://bertrandspensees.com/donald-trump-lying-cheating-unfit-and-unredeeming/
Why Bertrand’s Pensees?
This introduction to my blog is not a biography. That will be a separate article. Here, I want you to know why I wanted to create this outlet for my thoughts.
Since my retirement in January 2008, I have researched a variety of topics—subjects that have interested me for most of my adult life. I would like to claim simple curiosity as my only motivation, but I have to admit that being a lawyer almost forces one to seek answers, particularly when one has some training in researching topics and understanding what is accurate or false. I began to accept my life as a lawyer working for the State of Texas many years ago when I realized that it could pay my bills and offer me the time to pursue those things I enjoyed. So, even in retirement, I find my legal training and experience useful and motivating.
With a click of a mouse, research, as well, has become available at my fingertips. Search engines provide a powerful resource, although when it comes to many topics, particularly controversial ones, caution and discernment are the primary watchwords. A web site that has information that I find agreeable can be dangerous, if it lacks sources of proof. Even with the Internet as a resource (and it is incredible when doing legal research), “real” publications (books, magazines, and newspapers) still provide substantial information.
Although retirement gave me the time to engage in research, the subjects I have studied were borne of a curiosity about many important questions in my youth. I call it the struggle to understand life and how to live a life worth living. I sometimes look at my thoughts as being a farmer digs in the soil to plant crops and provide something useful for oneself and others. I have been a prolific reader, although not necessarily books. Before I retired, I probably averaged reading three to four books a year. Since retirement, the number of books read annually has doubled. Much of my daily reading concerns news, but it includes any magazine article on a subject that interests me, whether or not current events. I do read fiction (much more so in my younger years, partially due to a fantasy that I might write a novel of my own).
Most of my writings in this blog will probably concern one or more of the following subjects: history, law, politics, economics, religion, philosophy, and language (probably the subject I find most intriguing). I want to know about where we came from, why we have believed, or disbelieved. Language plays an important role, because we must use it to communicate. Yet, it also becomes a roadblock because words are not always clear from one person to another, making language a bit mysterious.
I will not try to write much about mathematics or the sciences, as I do not consider myself competent to engage in detailed discourse on those subjects, although I enjoy those subjects as well and respect people who are engaged in those subjects. I have a fairly good knowledge of mathematics to a certain level (having taken about ten courses in mathematics as an undergraduate). I appreciate and respect the scientific process and believe one should move cautiously when making factual claims.
The title of the blog is a homage to Blaise Pascal, the French mathematician, physicist, and philosopher. His most known writing, Pascal’s Pensées (Pascal’s thoughts) is a collection of thoughts on philosophy and religion, primarily his apology for a very orthodox form of Catholicism. If you want to know about his prowess as a mathematician and physicist, you will not find it in the Pensees. (Pascal discovered important principles of probability, thus becoming somewhat the founder of the math behind political polls. In Physics, he is known for researching and uncovering principles of hydraulics.) I will reserve any discussion about his book for a possible blog much later.
This blog, also a collection of thoughts, will mainly be on the topics mentioned above, but I plan to write on a variety of “lighter” subjects, something that Il call informally my perks and peeves. Whether it is a matter that I find annoying or pleasing, I want these writings to be humorous and enjoyable.
Writing has never come easily to me. So, please do not grade me on my grammar and writing style. My grades in English in high school were “okay” but never as good as my grades in other subjects. Still, words and their meanings fascinate me. I first began to enjoy language when I took French as an undergraduate. Nearly ten years later, upon my first trip to France, I realized how much I wanted to extend my language fluency to a second language. A few years later, I pursued a Master’s Degree in Foreign Language Studies, primarily with the hope of transitioning from being a lawyer to being a teacher of language. While I never made the transition, the courses I took and the research I did brought me closer to seeing the beauty, and the limitations, of human language. My decision to remain in my job with the State of Texas as a lawyer also provided me with a gift by requiring me to write daily. Although it was mundane and dry legal writing, trying to put something together that made sense to the reader forced me to train myself as a writer. When I began to appreciate what the daily writing required of me, it also made me appreciate one of my English teachers from middle school and high school, Louise Knight, who worked hard with me to improve my grammar.
So, I hope to share with whoever reads this blog, a lot of thoughts, some serious, some sad and hope many intriguing and enjoyable. I am fortunate to have the time in retirement, despite some of the health issues that come with aging, to do this research and write about it. I hope and pray that I will have a number of years to share many thoughts with you, the readers.